There is a certain kind of person — intelligent, well-read, cautious — who has never invested a single rupee in equity markets. Not in 1990, not in 2003, not in 2009, not in 2020. Not once. And they always have a reason. A perfectly logical, perfectly reasonable, perfectly convincing reason. The problem is this: every single year for the last 47 years, there has been a perfectly good reason NOT to invest. And every single year, the market has moved higher anyway.
The Indian equity market (Sensex) has moved from 100 in 1979 to approximately 79,000 in 2026. That is a 790x return. An investor who put Rs 1 lakh in 1979 and stayed invested would be sitting on roughly Rs 7.9 crore today — despite every war, crash, crisis, pandemic, and recession along the way.
The Complete Timeline of Fear: 1983 to 2026
What follows is a year-by-year chronicle of the excuses that kept millions of investors on the sidelines. Every single year had a headline-grabbing reason to stay away from equity. And every single year, those who stayed invested were rewarded.
| Year | The Excuse | What Happened Next |
|---|---|---|
| 1983 | Market hits record — "Too high to enter" | Market continued climbing for 3 more years |
| 1984 | Record U.S. Federal deficits | Global markets recovered and rallied |
| 1985 | Economic growth slows | Slowing growth became the base for the next boom |
| 1986 | Dow nears 2000 — "Market too high" | Dow doubled within the next 4 years |
| 1987 | Black Monday — Worst single-day crash in history | Markets recovered everything within 2 years |
| 1988 | Fear of recession | No recession came — markets rallied |
| 1989 | Junk bond collapse | Quality stocks were untouched and grew |
| 1990 | Gulf War — worst decline in 16 years | War ended, oil settled, markets surged |
Notice a pattern? Every crash, every crisis, every war was followed by a recovery. The only people who lost money permanently were those who sold during the panic or never invested at all.
| Year | The Excuse | What Happened Next |
|---|---|---|
| 1991 | Recession — "Market too high" | Harshad Mehta bull run was just around the corner |
| 1992 | Elections, market flat | Liberalisation reforms began transforming India |
| 1993 | Businesses continue restructuring | Indian IT sector was quietly being born |
| 1994 | Interest rates are going up | Rate hikes slowed but equity kept compounding |
| 1995 | "The market is too high" | It went much, much higher in the coming decade |
| 1996 | Fear of inflation | Inflation cooled, markets resumed uptrend |
| 1997 | Irrational Exuberance — Greenspan's warning | Markets continued rising for 3 more years |
| 1998 | Asian Financial Crisis | India was relatively insulated, recovered fast |
| 1999 | Y2K fears — computers will crash | Nothing happened. IT stocks boomed. |
| 2000 | Technology Correction — Dotcom bust | Value investors loaded up on bargains |
The 2000s: A Decade of Crises That Built Fortunes
If you thought the 1990s were scary, the 2000s made them look tame. Terrorism, corporate fraud, war, housing bubbles, banking collapses — this decade tested the faith of every investor alive. And yet, the Sensex went from roughly 5,000 at the start of 2000 to nearly 17,000 by the end of 2009. A 3.4x return in the worst decade many investors had ever witnessed.
| Year | The Excuse | What Happened Next |
|---|---|---|
| 2001 | Recession + World Trade Center attack | Markets bottomed and began a historic 5-year rally |
| 2002 | Corporate accounting scandals (Enron, WorldCom) | Regulations tightened, trust rebuilt, markets rose |
| 2003 | War in Iraq | One of the greatest bull markets in history began |
| 2004 | U.S. massive trade and budget deficits | India story accelerated — FII inflows surged |
| 2005 | Record oil and gas prices | Indian economy grew 9 percent despite oil |
| 2006 | Housing bubble bursts | Indian markets hit all-time highs |
| 2007 | Sub-prime mortgage crisis begins | Sensex crossed 20,000 for the first time |
| 2008 | Banking and Credit crisis — Lehman collapses | Those who invested at the bottom made 3-4x in 5 years |
| 2009 | Recession — Credit Crunch, "world ending" | Sensex rallied from 8,000 to 17,000 in 10 months |
Here is the brutal truth about 2008: The Sensex crashed from 21,000 to 8,000 — a 62 percent fall. Terrifying? Absolutely. But someone who started a Rs 10,000 SIP in January 2008 (the worst possible timing) and continued for just 5 years would have earned a 15 percent CAGR return. The crash was the best thing that happened to their SIP.
The 2010s: New Crises, Same Pattern
| Year | The Excuse | What Happened Next |
|---|---|---|
| 2010 | Sovereign debt crisis (Greece, Europe) | Indian markets rallied 17 percent that year |
| 2011 | Eurozone crisis deepens | SIP investors accumulated more units at lower prices |
| 2012 | U.S. fiscal cliff — government shutdown fears | Markets shrugged it off and moved higher |
| 2013 | Federal Reserve to taper stimulus | "Taper tantrum" lasted weeks, not years |
| 2014 | Oil prices plunge 50 percent | India benefited massively as an oil importer |
| 2015 | Chinese stock market sell-off | Indian markets corrected 10 percent then recovered |
| 2016 | Brexit + Demonetisation + Trump wins | Sensex ended the year higher despite all three shocks |
| 2017 | Stocks at record highs + Bitcoin mania | "Too high" — and it went even higher |
| 2018 | Trade Wars + Rising interest rates globally | Large-cap quality stocks held firm |
| 2019 | India GDP slows to 5 percent | Markets recovered as stimulus kicked in |
The 2020s: Pandemic, Wars, and Still Rising
| Year | The Excuse | What Happened Next |
|---|---|---|
| 2020 | COVID-19 — Global pandemic, markets crash 38 percent | Fastest recovery in history. Sensex doubled in 18 months |
| 2021 | Post-peak correction, inflation fears | Markets ended the year at all-time highs |
| 2022 | Russia-Ukraine Invasion, inflation spikes globally | India outperformed most global markets |
| 2023 | Adani-Hindenburg crisis, geopolitical jitters | Sensex crossed 70,000 for the first time |
| 2024 | Election shock + U.S. recession fears | Markets corrected then rallied post-election clarity |
| 2025 | "Global Pariah" year — U.S. tariff shocks, trade wars | India focused on domestic consumption, stayed resilient |
| 2026 (Jan-Mar) | Geopolitical escalation, worst start in a decade | Smart investors continue their SIPs — history is on their side |
The COVID crash of March 2020 is the perfect case study. Sensex fell from 42,000 to 25,000 in just 30 days. Every headline screamed disaster. And yet, someone who invested Rs 5 lakh at the bottom of March 2020 would be sitting on approximately Rs 16 lakh by 2026 — a 3.2x return in 6 years. Fear is expensive. Courage is profitable.
The Maths That Fear Cannot Argue With
Forget the headlines. Forget the fear. Let the numbers speak. The Indian benchmark index has gone from 100 in 1979 to approximately 79,000 in March 2026. That is 47 years of relentless, unstoppable growth — through every war, recession, pandemic, political crisis, and market crash that humanity has thrown at it.
- Sensex in 1979: 100
- Sensex in 1990: 780 — a 7.8x return despite Gulf War and recession
- Sensex in 2000: 5,000 — a 50x return despite Asian Crisis and Y2K fears
- Sensex in 2010: 17,500 — a 175x return despite Global Financial Crisis
- Sensex in 2020: 42,000 — a 420x return despite COVID-19 pandemic
- Sensex in 2026: 79,000 — a 790x return despite geopolitical escalation
A Rs 10,000 SIP started in January 2000 and continued till March 2026 — through the dotcom bust, 9/11, Iraq War, Lehman Brothers, Eurozone crisis, demonetisation, COVID, Russia-Ukraine war, and every other headline — would have accumulated approximately Rs 31.2 lakh in investments and grown to roughly Rs 1.8 crore. That is the power of staying invested. That is the power of ignoring the noise.
The Psychology Trap: Why We Believe Bearish Arguments More
There is a well-documented phenomenon in behavioural finance called negativity bias. Human beings are wired to pay more attention to threats than to opportunities. A bearish argument always sounds more intelligent, more sophisticated, and more credible than a bullish one. Saying "the market will crash" makes you sound smart. Saying "the market will go up" makes you sound naive. This is why bears sound like experts and bulls sound like salesmen.
- Loss aversion — the pain of losing Rs 1 lakh feels twice as intense as the pleasure of gaining Rs 1 lakh. This makes us avoid risk even when the odds overwhelmingly favour action.
- Confirmation bias — once you decide the market is dangerous, your brain selectively filters for news that confirms this belief. Every red headline becomes proof. Every green day is dismissed as a "dead cat bounce".
- Recency bias — whatever happened last week feels like it will continue forever. A 10 percent correction feels like the beginning of a 50 percent crash. A rally feels like a bubble.
- Herd mentality — when everyone around you is panicking, staying calm feels foolish. When everyone is celebrating, FOMO kicks in. Both emotions lead to buying high and selling low.
- Status quo bias — doing nothing feels safer than doing something. "I will wait for the right time" is the most expensive sentence in investing because the right time was always yesterday.
As per human psychology, we normally tend to agree more on any bearish argument. A person who says "market will crash" sounds intelligent. A person who says "market will recover" sounds reckless. But look at the scoreboard: over 47 years, the bulls have won every single long-term battle.
The Two Types of Wealth: Bull Market Money vs Bear Market Fortune
There is a saying among the most successful investors on the planet: "One can create money by investing in a bull market, but one can create a fortune by investing in a bear market." This is not just a motivational quote — it is mathematical fact.
When markets crash 30 to 40 percent, your SIP is buying units at rock-bottom prices. When markets recover (and they always have, every single time in 47 years), those cheap units multiply dramatically. The investors who continued their SIPs through 2008, through 2020, through every crash — they are the ones sitting on fortunes today. The ones who stopped their SIPs in fear are the ones who merely made money in the subsequent bull run.
Consider two investors who both started a Rs 10,000 monthly SIP in January 2008. Investor A panicked during the crash and stopped his SIP in November 2008. Investor B kept going. By 2015, Investor A had invested Rs 1.1 lakh and his portfolio was worth around Rs 2.1 lakh. Investor B had invested Rs 8.4 lakh and his portfolio was worth around Rs 18 lakh. Same starting point. Same SIP amount. But Investor B had 8x more wealth — all because he did not stop during the storm.
Time IN the Market vs Timing the Market
There have been extensive studies on what happens if you miss the best days in the market while trying to time your entry. The results are devastating. Research from multiple global studies shows that if you were invested in the Sensex for the entire period from 2000 to 2025 but missed just the 10 best trading days (out of approximately 6,250 trading days), your returns would drop by nearly half. Miss the best 30 days and you would barely beat a fixed deposit.
Here is the cruel irony: the best trading days almost always occur immediately after the worst trading days. The biggest single-day gains happen during bear markets, during crises, during panic. If you pulled your money out to "protect" yourself, you missed the recovery that followed. You experienced the pain of the fall but missed the reward of the bounce.
Invest the time in the market, instead of timing the market. Some people will always find a reason not to invest. But remember — no one and nothing can stop the market in the long run. Not wars, not pandemics, not recessions, not inflation, not political chaos. The market does not care about your fears. It only rewards your patience.
What Should You Do Right Now?
If you have been sitting on the sidelines waiting for the "perfect time" to start investing, here is your answer: the perfect time was 47 years ago. The second-best time is today. Every year you wait, you lose the most powerful force in wealth creation — compounding. A Rs 10,000 SIP started today versus 5 years from now means crores of difference at retirement.
- Start a SIP today — even Rs 500 per month. The amount matters less than the habit of starting.
- Never stop your SIP during a crash — this is when your SIP is working hardest for you, buying cheap units.
- Increase your SIP every year — a 10 percent annual step-up can nearly double your final corpus compared to a flat SIP.
- Ignore the headlines — the market has survived 47 years of terrifying headlines and delivered 790x returns.
- Think in decades, not days — your SIP does not care about this week or this month. It cares about the next 20 years.
- Use the Mera SIP calculators to see for yourself — our Lifeline Planner and SIP calculators will show you exactly what disciplined investing can do for your goals.
In 2026, there will be a reason not to invest. In 2027, there will be another reason. In 2030, 2035, 2040 — every single year will have its own crisis, its own headline, its own reason to stay on the sidelines. And in every single one of those years, the investors who ignored the noise and continued their SIPs will be quietly building fortunes. Be that investor.
One can create money by investing in a bull market, but one can create a fortune by investing in a bear market. The choice is yours — will you be the person who always had a reason not to invest? Or will you be the person who invested despite every reason not to?