Market Pulse
Stay informed with weekly market updates, curated insights, and expert commentary — all viewed through the lens of a disciplined SIP investor.
Weekly Market Commentary
Expert analysis of market movements with SIP-specific takeaways.
IT Roars Back — Nifty +0.89% to 24,271, Sensex +0.86% to 77,764; a Soft US Jobs Print Cements a Fed-on-Hold, VIX Sinks to a February Low, and the Market Books a Fourth Straight Weekly Gain with Pharma at a Record High
After a quiet fortnight, the market found a fresh gear — and it came from the sector everyone had written off. Indian equities climbed steadily through the five sessions to a fourth consecutive weekly gain, the longest winning run of 2026 so far. The benchmarks closed firmly higher — the Nifty 50 added 0.89% to 24,270.85 (about +215 points) and the Sensex rose 0.86% to 77,763.91 (about +663 points), both up nearly a full percent on the week. The engine was a striking rebound in IT: after being routed just three weeks earlier on Accenture's FY27 guidance cut, the Nifty IT index bounced roughly 4% off a four-day fall, with Infosys and TCS surging up to 5%. Pharma led alongside — the Nifty Pharma index hit a fresh record high of 25,861.50 as Aurobindo, Ipca, Laurus and Torrent touched all-time highs. Crucially, the advance was broad-based: BSE Midcaps (+0.80%) and Smallcaps (+1.51%) rose too, and the fear gauge fell further, India VIX dropping about 10% to 11.79 — its lowest since February. The week's single clear driver came from Washington: a soft US June jobs report (just 57,000 jobs added versus ~113,000 expected, unemployment 4.2%, with prior months revised lower) cemented the case for the Fed to stay on hold, switching global risk appetite firmly back on and powering US indices to fresh highs (S&P 500 +1.8%, Nasdaq +2.1%, Dow +2%). That softer-rates signal flowed straight into India's IT rebound, drew foreign buyers back (FIIs turned net buyers ~+₹4,200 Cr while DIIs added ~+₹12,600 Cr, both provisional), and kept crude soft (Brent ~$72/bbl) and the rupee steady (~₹94.9). The week's real lesson is behavioural: selling into a sector scare — as many were tempted to do with IT three weeks ago — costs an investor twice, the fall and then the rebound they miss. (Figures are as of the Friday 3 July close; items that could not be independently cross-verified are stated approximately or omitted.)
Key Points This Week
- 1Nifty 50 closed at 24,270.85 (Fri 3 Jul), up about 0.89% week-on-week from 24,056.00; the Sensex settled at 77,763.91, up roughly 0.86% from 77,100.47. Both benchmarks rose nearly a full percent, notching a fourth consecutive weekly gain — the longest winning run of 2026 so far. The two moved together throughout, as they always do, and the advance built steadily across the five sessions rather than in one sharp move.
- 2THE ENGINE WAS AN IT REBOUND. After being routed just three weeks earlier on Accenture's FY27 guidance cut, the Nifty IT index bounced roughly 4% off a four-day fall, with Infosys and TCS surging up to 5%. The trigger was global: softer US rate expectations revived appetite for the rate-sensitive, export-facing sector, aided by short-covering. It is a textbook illustration that the corner of the market you fear most this month can lead the very next — which is exactly why reacting to a single sector scare is so costly.
- 3PHARMA HIT A RECORD HIGH. The Nifty Pharma index touched a fresh all-time high of 25,861.50 (up about 2% on Friday), with Aurobindo Pharma, Ipca Laboratories, Laurus Labs and Torrent Pharmaceuticals among the names at record levels. Healthcare has quietly been one of 2026's standout pockets — a reminder that leadership is broad and rotating, and that a diversified core captures these winners without needing to pick them in advance.
- 4THE ADVANCE WAS BROAD-BASED. Unlike the prior fortnight's narrow, defensive drift, this week saw the whole market rise together — BSE Midcaps added about 0.80% and Smallcaps about 1.51%, outpacing the large-cap benchmarks (provisional aggregator data). A rising market with broad breadth AND falling volatility — India VIX slipped roughly 10% to 11.79, its lowest since February — is about as constructive a technical combination as it gets, though never a reason to chase.
- 5THE DRIVER CAME FROM WASHINGTON. US June payrolls came in soft — just 57,000 jobs added versus about 113,000 expected, unemployment at 4.2%, with prior months revised lower — breaking a hot streak and cementing the case for the Fed to stay on hold. That "bad news is good news" read switched global risk appetite firmly back on, lifting US indices to fresh highs in a holiday-shortened week (S&P 500 +1.8%, Nasdaq +2.1%, Dow +2%; US markets shut Friday for Independence Day). Even Bitcoin rose about 4% on the week, to near $61,500, on the same easing-rates narrative.
- 6FLOWS TURNED FRIENDLIER. The notable shift was foreign money coming back: FIIs turned net buyers on the cash tape (roughly +₹4,200 Cr, provisional) — a welcome reversal after months of selling — as the IT rebound drew them in, while domestic institutions stayed strong buyers (about +₹12,600 Cr). Crude stayed soft near $72/bbl on easing West Asia tensions, and the rupee held steady around ₹94.9, both quiet tailwinds for an economy that imports over 80% of its oil. Whether the foreign buying persists into earnings season is the key flow to watch.
SIP Investor Advice
This week is a live, uncomfortable lesson in the true cost of reacting to a scare — and the most useful conversation a client can have this fortnight is about IT. (1) Understand that selling a scare costs you twice. Three weeks ago, one guidance cut from Accenture triggered an IT sell-off and a wave of "is the sector broken?" headlines. An investor who acted on that fear — who trimmed IT, or worse, paused their SIP — locked in the fall and then watched from the sidelines this week as the very same sector bounced ~4% and led the market to a fresh high. You do not just take the loss; you also forfeit the recovery, which almost never announces itself in advance. As Peter Lynch put it, "The real key to making money in stocks is not to get scared out of them." (2) Let broad gains reward diversification, not sector-picking. This week large, mid and small-caps ALL rose, and the leaders were IT, pharma and realty — the very corners that had lagged in June. Owning the whole market through a diversified, multi-cap core is what captured that rotation automatically; trying to guess which sector leads next is a gamble you do not need to take. (3) Treat the coming earnings season as information, not instruction. Q1 FY27 results start shortly, with IT majors traditionally reporting first. Read them for context on how your funds' holdings are doing — do not trade the headlines. A single quarter's guidance moved IT violently in both directions within three weeks; your 10-year goal should not be steered by either move. (4) Do not confuse a calm, rising market for a signal to chase. Volatility at a February low and a fourth straight up week feel good, but the discipline is identical to a scary week — keep the SIP running, keep the allocation aligned to your goal, and resist both fear and greed. (5) The single most useful step this fortnight is a calm allocation-and-quality review with your Trustner Relationship Manager: confirm you are on track to your goals and that your funds are in good hands, precisely so the next scary headline — and there will always be one — is something you can sit through rather than react to. This week's companion blog, "The Rebound You'd Have Missed: Why Selling a Sector Scare Costs You Twice," unpacks the full idea. Stay invested, keep your SIPs running, keep your eyes on the goal — not the ticker.
Previous Commentaries
The Quiet Win — A Holiday-Shortened Week Drifts to a Third Straight Gain as Volatility Hits a 5-Month Low; Nifty +0.18% to 24,056, Sensex +0.4% to 77,100
June 22 - June 28, 2026A Strong Week with a Friday Reminder — Nifty +1.65% to 24,013, Sensex +1.69%; US-Iran Peace Crashes Oil ~8%, Then an Accenture-Led IT Rout
June 15 - June 21, 2026A Friday V-Recovery on US-Iran Peace Hopes Crashes Oil ~6% — Nifty +1.10% WoW to 23,623, Sensex +1.67%, Domestic Money Out-Buys Foreign Selling
June 8 - June 14, 2026RBI Holds Repo at 5.25% (Neutral) — Nifty Eases to 23,367 (-0.77% WoW), IT Leads as Domestic Money Absorbs Foreign Selling
June 1 - June 7, 2026MSCI Rebalance Triggers ₹21,000 Cr FII Outflow on Friday — Nifty -1.5% to 23,548, Bank Nifty Marks 18 Months Flat
May 25 - May 31, 2026Rupee Hits Lifetime Low ₹96.90 Before RBI Burns $8 Bn — Nifty Holds Flat at 23,719, Bank Nifty -2.9%
May 17 - May 23, 2026Brutal Monday Crash Wipes ₹10-16 Lakh Crore, IT Hits 52-Week Lows — Nifty Ends Week -2.2% at 23,643
May 10 - May 16, 2026Brent Crashes 7% to $101 on Iran 14-Point MoU Hopes — Smallcaps Hit 4th ATH, Nifty Adds 0.75%
May 3 - May 9, 2026Banks Cracked, Pharma Surged: 15-Point Sector Spread Behind a Flat Nifty Week
Apr 26 - May 2, 2026IT Meltdown & Oil Shock: Sensex Loses 1,829 Points as Hormuz Tensions Resume
Apr 19 - Apr 25, 2026Back-to-Back Weekly Gains: Nifty Closes 24,353 as Hormuz Reopens, VIX Slides to 17, Q4 Earnings Begin
Apr 14 - Apr 18, 2026Ceasefire Rally: Nifty Surges 6% in Sharpest Weekly Gain in 5 Years as US-Iran Truce Crashes Oil
Apr 5 - Apr 11, 2026Sixth Straight Weekly Loss: Oil Crosses $110, Rupee Recovers to 92.73, RBI MPC Next Week
Mar 29 - Apr 4, 2026Fifth Straight Weekly Loss: Goldman Cuts India to Market Weight, Oil Near $108 & Rupee Breaches 94
Mar 22 - Mar 28, 2026Markets Survive Mid-Week Crash, End Flat as Fed Holds & Hormuz Escalates
Mar 15 - Mar 21, 2026Worst Week in 4 Years: Sensex Crashes 5%, Oil Surge & FII Exodus Hammer Markets
Mar 8 - Mar 14, 2026Oil Shock Hits Markets: Crude Crosses $92, Sensex Falls 2-3% as Geopolitical Crisis Deepens
Mar 1 - Mar 7, 2026Markets Slide 2.5% as US-Iran Tensions Escalate; Sensex Falls Below 82,000
Feb 22 - Feb 28, 2026Markets Rebound on Metal, Power & Banking Strength; Geopolitical Tensions Absorbed
Feb 15 - Feb 21, 2026Trustner Weekly Market Brief
Our flagship 3-page magazine covering 14 market sections — Indian equities, global markets, commodities, FII/DII flows, RBI policy, mutual funds, IPOs, and more. Published every Sunday.
IT Roars Back — Nifty +0.89% to 24,271, Sensex +0.86% to 77,764; a Soft US Jobs Print Cements a Fed-on-Hold, VIX Sinks to a February Low, and the Market Books a Fourth Straight Weekly Gain with Pharma at a Record High
After a quiet fortnight, the market found a fresh gear — and it came from the sector everyone had written off. Indian equities climbed steadily through the five sessions to a fourth consecutive weekly gain, the longest winning run of 2026 so far. The benchmarks closed firmly higher — the Nifty 50 added 0.89% to 24,270.85 (about +215 points) and the Sensex rose 0.86% to 77,763.91 (about +663 points), both up nearly a full percent on the week. The engine was a striking rebound in IT: after being routed just three weeks earlier on Accenture's FY27 guidance cut, the Nifty IT index bounced roughly 4% off a four-day fall, with Infosys and TCS surging up to 5%. Pharma led alongside — the Nifty Pharma index hit a fresh record high of 25,861.50 as Aurobindo, Ipca, Laurus and Torrent touched all-time highs. Crucially, the advance was broad-based: BSE Midcaps (+0.80%) and Smallcaps (+1.51%) rose too, and the fear gauge fell further, India VIX dropping about 10% to 11.79 — its lowest since February. The week's single clear driver came from Washington: a soft US June jobs report (just 57,000 jobs added versus ~113,000 expected, unemployment 4.2%, prior months revised lower) cemented the case for the Fed to stay on hold, switching global risk appetite firmly back on and powering US indices to fresh highs (S&P 500 +1.8%, Nasdaq +2.1%, Dow +2%). That softer-rates signal flowed straight into India's IT rebound, drew foreign buyers back (FIIs turned net buyers ~+₹4,200 Cr while DIIs added ~+₹12,600 Cr, both provisional), and kept crude soft (Brent ~$72) and the rupee steady (~₹94.9). The companion blog explains why selling into a sector scare — as many were tempted to do with IT three weeks ago — costs an investor twice: the fall, and then the rebound they miss. (Figures are as of the Friday 3 July close; items that could not be independently cross-verified are stated approximately or omitted.)
Previous Issues
The Quiet Win — A Holiday-Shortened Week Drifts to a Third Straight Gain as Volatility Hits a 5-Month Low; Nifty +0.18% to 24,056, Sensex +0.4% to 77,100
A Strong Week with a Friday Reminder — Nifty +1.65% to 24,013, Sensex +1.69%; US-Iran Peace Crashes Oil ~8%, Then an Accenture-Led IT Rout
A Friday V-Recovery on US-Iran Peace Hopes Crashes Oil ~6% — Nifty +1.10% WoW to 23,623, Sensex +1.67%, Domestic Money Out-Buys Foreign Selling
RBI Holds Repo at 5.25% (Neutral) — Nifty Eases to 23,367 (-0.77% WoW), IT Leads as Domestic Money Absorbs Foreign Selling
MSCI Rebalance Triggers ₹21,000 Cr FII Outflow on Friday — Nifty -1.5% to 23,548, Bank Nifty Marks 18 Months Flat
Rupee Hits Lifetime Low ₹96.90 Before RBI Burns $8 Bn — Nifty Holds Flat at 23,719, Bank Nifty -2.9%
Brutal Monday Crash Wipes ₹10-16 Lakh Crore, IT Hits 52-Week Lows — Nifty Ends Week -2.2% at 23,643
Brent Crashes 7% to $101 on Iran 14-Point MoU Hopes — Smallcaps Hit 4th ATH, Nifty Gains 0.75%
Sector Rotation Hides Behind a Flat Nifty: Pharma Surges, Banks Crack as Brent Hits $126 & Rupee Sets Record Low
IT Meltdown & Oil Shock: Sensex Loses 1,829 Points as Hormuz Tensions Resume
Hormuz Reopens, VIX Slides to 17, Q4 Earnings Begin
Ceasefire Rally: Nifty Surges 6% in Sharpest Weekly Gain in 5 Years
Sixth Straight Weekly Loss: Oil Crosses $110, Rupee Recovers to 92.73
Goldman Cuts India to Market Weight, Oil Near $108 & Rupee Breaches 94
Market Insights
Curated insights on market trends, SIP strategy, and investor education to help you make informed decisions.
Nifty +6% in One Week: Why SIP Investors Who Held Their Nerve Won Big
The Nifty surged ~6% in a single week — the sharpest rally in five years — after six consecutive weeks of losses. This perfectly illustrates the SIP advantage. Investors who continued SIPs during the ...
Record SIP of ₹32,087 Crore in March: India's Quiet Wealth Revolution Accelerates
March 2026 SIP inflows hit a record ₹32,087 crore — surpassing January's ₹31,000 crore milestone. Even more impressive: equity mutual fund inflows surged 56% MoM to ₹40,450 crore, with Flexi Cap funds...
Oil Crashes 14% to $96: What the Biggest Weekly Drop Since 2022 Means for India
Brent crude crashed from $111.69 to $96.48/bbl — the sharpest weekly decline since November 2022 — after the US-Iran ceasefire agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. For India, which imports 85% of...
RBI Holds at 5.25%: Why the June MPC Could Be the Turning Point for Markets
The RBI MPC unanimously held the repo rate at 5.25% on April 8, maintaining a neutral stance. FY27 GDP is projected at 6.9% with CPI at 4.6%. The hold was expected given crude above $100 and ceasefire...
US-Iran Ceasefire: Why Markets Rallied 6% — and Why Caution Is Still Warranted
The Pakistan-brokered ceasefire between the US and Iran on April 8 ended 40 days of military strikes and triggered the sharpest global market rally in years. Iran agreed to reopen the Strait of Hormuz...
RBI MPC April 6-8: Why the Decision Matters More Than Usual for SIP Investors
The RBI MPC meeting on April 6-8 faces an extraordinary dilemma. After cutting rates by 125 bps in 2025 (repo at 5.25%), Governor Malhotra now confronts Brent crude above $110, manufacturing PMI at a ...
Strait of Hormuz 'Tehran Toll Booth': What $110 Oil Means for Your SIP
Iran has turned the Strait of Hormuz into a controlled checkpoint, allowing only 5-10 ships daily and charging up to $2 million per passage. With ~20% of global oil supply disrupted and Brent at $111....
Six Consecutive Weekly Losses: Historical Perspective for SIP Investors
The Nifty has now fallen for six straight weeks — the longest losing streak since 2022. FY26 ended with a 5% decline. Headlines are alarming, but history offers perspective. In the 25-year history of ...
Markets Crashed 5% This Week — Here Is Why Your SIP Loves It
The week of March 10-14 saw the Sensex crash over 5% — the worst weekly fall in four years. For SIP investors, this is not a disaster but an opportunity. When markets fell 38% in March 2020, SIP insta...
Crude Oil at $100 — What It Means for Indian SIP Investors
Brent crude breaching $100/barrel has rattled Indian markets. India imports 85% of its oil needs, making it vulnerable to energy shocks. Higher oil means wider current account deficit, weaker rupee, h...
FIIs Sold Rs 21,000 Crore in March — Why DIIs Are the New Market Anchor
Foreign investors have pulled out over Rs 21,000 crore from Indian equities in March 2026 alone, the heaviest monthly outflow since January 2025. Capital is rotating to US Treasuries and gold as the U...
Rupee at Rs 92.5 Record Low — The Hidden Silver Lining for SIP Investors
The Indian rupee has hit a record low of Rs 92.54 per dollar, up 2.6% in 2026 alone. For SIP investors, this has nuanced implications. Import-heavy sectors (oil, chemicals, electronics) face margin pr...
Repo Rate at 5.25% — How the Rate Cut Cycle Affects Your Mutual Funds
The RBI has cut the repo rate from 6.50% to 5.25% over three cuts in 2025 (Feb, Jun, Dec), pausing in February 2026. This 125 bps easing cycle has significant implications for mutual fund investors. D...
India VIX at 22: What the Fear Gauge Tells SIP Investors
The India VIX (volatility index) has surged to 22 — the highest level since the 2024 election season. VIX above 20 signals extreme fear and uncertainty. But for disciplined SIP investors, elevated VIX...
Rs 31,000 Crore Monthly SIPs: India's Quiet Wealth Revolution
January 2026 SIP inflows hit Rs 31,000 crore — the second consecutive month above this milestone. February held strong at Rs 29,845 crore (the dip was due to fewer working days). Over Rs 3.6 lakh cror...
US-Iran Conflict and Your SIP: Lessons from Past Geopolitical Crises
The escalating US-Iran tensions — including the reported killing of Iran's Supreme Leader, Strait of Hormuz disruption fears, and Brent crude crossing $100 — have triggered the sharpest market correct...
Midcap and Smallcap Down 15-20% from Highs: Time to Increase SIP?
Nifty Midcap 150 has fallen from its 52-week high of ~22,094 to ~20,290 — a correction of over 8%. Many individual midcap and smallcap stocks are down 15-25% from their peaks. For existing SIP investo...
Gold Hit $5,100 — Why Equity SIP Still Beats Gold Over 15 Years
Gold recently touched $5,100/oz globally (Rs 1.62 lakh/10g in India) before correcting to Rs 1.60 lakh. The surge is driven by geopolitical uncertainty, central bank buying, and safe-haven demand. Whi...
Tax-Loss Harvesting: How to Turn This Market Crash Into Tax Savings
With markets down 10%+ from January highs, many SIP installments from the past 6-12 months are sitting at unrealized losses. This creates a tax-loss harvesting opportunity. The strategy: redeem specif...
Sensex Down 10% YTD — A 25-Year Perspective on Market Corrections
The Sensex is down nearly 10% year-to-date in 2026, from ~82,800 to ~74,564. Headlines scream "crash" and "wealth destruction." But zoom out: the Sensex was at 6,000 in 2003, 21,000 in 2008, 40,000 in...
When Should You Start or Stop Your SIP?
Evidence-based answers to the most common SIP timing questions. Spoiler: time in the market beats timing the market.
Best Day to Start SIP? Today.
Analysis of 25 years of Nifty 50 data reveals that the difference between the best and worst SIP start date in any given month is negligible over a 10-year horizon. A SIP started on January 1, 2005 vs February 15, 2005 yields nearly identical results by 2015. The cost of waiting for the "perfect" time is far greater than the cost of starting at a "wrong" time. With Sensex down 10% from January 2026 highs, investors who waited for a correction now have one — but will they act, or wait for an even bigger fall? Every day you delay, you lose out on potential compounding.
Start your SIP today regardless of market levels
Markets Crashed 5% This Week — Should You Stop Your SIP?
The week of March 10-14, 2026 saw the Sensex crash 5.3% — the worst weekly fall in 4 years. Oil at $100, FIIs selling Rs 21,000 crore, rupee at Rs 92.5. Every instinct says "stop and wait." But data proves the opposite: SIP investors who stopped during March 2020 (Nifty fell 38%) missed the 80% recovery within 9 months. Those who stopped during the 2008 crash missed a 300% rally. Crashes feel permanent but always prove temporary. Your SIP in March 2026 is buying units at prices you will look back on as bargains. The pattern is consistent: panic sellers lose, disciplined SIP investors win.
Never stop SIP during market crashes — this is when SIP works hardest for you
Rupee Cost Averaging During the 2026 Correction
Rupee Cost Averaging (RCA) is the core mechanism that makes SIP powerful — and it works best during corrections like the one in March 2026. When you invest Rs 10,000 monthly, you buy more units when NAV falls: at NAV Rs 500 you get 20 units, at NAV Rs 400 you get 25 units — that is 25% more units for the same money. Over the current correction (Nifty down from 25,571 to 23,255), your SIP has been accumulating units 9% cheaper. In volatile markets, RCA amplifies returns even further because the spread between monthly highs and lows is larger. A 10-year SIP through two corrections delivers significantly better returns than one during a steady bull market.
Embrace volatility — corrections make your SIP more powerful
Oil Shock, Geopolitical Crisis — Should You Pause SIP?
Brent crude at $100, Strait of Hormuz tensions, US-Iran conflict deepening — the headlines are genuinely frightening. But every geopolitical crisis in the past 25 years has followed the same pattern for SIP investors. Gulf War 2003: Nifty recovered in 6 months. Global Financial Crisis 2008: recovery in 18 months. Russia-Ukraine 2022: recovery in 8 months. COVID 2020: recovery in 5 months. The current crisis will also pass. SIP is designed to invest through uncertainty — that is its greatest strength. Pausing your SIP during a geopolitical crisis is like cancelling your insurance during a storm. The worst time to stop investing is precisely when markets are falling.
Geopolitical crises are temporary — keep your SIP running
SIP Top-Up Strategy: Making the Most of Market Corrections
Regular SIP ensures discipline, but market corrections like the current 10% decline from January highs offer an opportunity for SIP top-ups. The strategy is simple: maintain your regular monthly SIP unchanged, but add a one-time lump sum investment (or temporary SIP increase) when markets correct 10%+ from recent highs. Back-tested on Nifty data from 2005-2025, investors who added 20% extra during corrections above 10% earned 1.5-2% higher CAGR over 15 years compared to plain vanilla SIP. The key discipline: define your trigger (e.g., 10% fall from peak), deploy a fixed amount, and do not try to time the bottom. The correction is the signal, not the level.
Consider a SIP top-up when markets correct 10%+ from recent highs
Market data shown is illustrative/sample only. Not real-time. All information is for educational purposes and should not be construed as investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future returns.