NIFTY 50₹22,500▲125.30(0.56%)•
SENSEX₹74,200▲412.50(0.56%)•
BANK NIFTY₹48,300▼210.40(0.43%)•
TATA MOTORS₹780.00▲12.45(1.62%)•
INFOSYS₹1,520.00▼18.20(1.18%)•
WIPRO₹475.00▲5.60(1.19%)•
RELIANCE₹2,890.00▲34.50(1.21%)•
TCS₹3,650.00▼28.10(0.76%)•
HDFC BANK₹1,580.00▲15.20(0.97%)•
ICICI BANK₹1,120.00▲8.90(0.80%)•
SBI₹820.00▼5.30(0.64%)•
BHARTI AIRTEL₹1,650.00▲22.80(1.40%)•
HUL₹2,380.00▼12.40(0.52%)•
ITC₹445.00▲3.20(0.72%)•
KOTAK BANK₹1,780.00▲14.60(0.83%)•
LT₹3,420.00▼45.20(1.30%)•
AXIS BANK₹1,080.00▲9.50(0.89%)•
BAJAJ FINANCE₹7,200.00▲85.40(1.20%)•
MARUTI₹12,400▼150.00(1.19%)•
ASIAN PAINTS₹2,850.00▲18.90(0.67%)•
HCLTECH₹1,420.00▼16.30(1.14%)•
TITAN₹3,250.00▲42.60(1.33%)•
ADANI PORTS₹1,380.00▼22.40(1.60%)•
POWER GRID₹310.00▲4.80(1.57%)•
NTPC₹365.00▲6.20(1.73%)•
SUNPHARMA₹1,680.00▼8.50(0.50%)•
NIFTY 50₹22,500▲125.30(0.56%)•
SENSEX₹74,200▲412.50(0.56%)•
BANK NIFTY₹48,300▼210.40(0.43%)•
TATA MOTORS₹780.00▲12.45(1.62%)•
INFOSYS₹1,520.00▼18.20(1.18%)•
WIPRO₹475.00▲5.60(1.19%)•
RELIANCE₹2,890.00▲34.50(1.21%)•
TCS₹3,650.00▼28.10(0.76%)•
HDFC BANK₹1,580.00▲15.20(0.97%)•
ICICI BANK₹1,120.00▲8.90(0.80%)•
SBI₹820.00▼5.30(0.64%)•
BHARTI AIRTEL₹1,650.00▲22.80(1.40%)•
HUL₹2,380.00▼12.40(0.52%)•
ITC₹445.00▲3.20(0.72%)•
KOTAK BANK₹1,780.00▲14.60(0.83%)•
LT₹3,420.00▼45.20(1.30%)•
AXIS BANK₹1,080.00▲9.50(0.89%)•
BAJAJ FINANCE₹7,200.00▲85.40(1.20%)•
MARUTI₹12,400▼150.00(1.19%)•
ASIAN PAINTS₹2,850.00▲18.90(0.67%)•
HCLTECH₹1,420.00▼16.30(1.14%)•
TITAN₹3,250.00▲42.60(1.33%)•
ADANI PORTS₹1,380.00▼22.40(1.60%)•
POWER GRID₹310.00▲4.80(1.57%)•
NTPC₹365.00▲6.20(1.73%)•
SUNPHARMA₹1,680.00▼8.50(0.50%)•
NIFTY 50₹22,500▲125.30(0.56%)•
SENSEX₹74,200▲412.50(0.56%)•
BANK NIFTY₹48,300▼210.40(0.43%)•
TATA MOTORS₹780.00▲12.45(1.62%)•
INFOSYS₹1,520.00▼18.20(1.18%)•
WIPRO₹475.00▲5.60(1.19%)•
RELIANCE₹2,890.00▲34.50(1.21%)•
TCS₹3,650.00▼28.10(0.76%)•
HDFC BANK₹1,580.00▲15.20(0.97%)•
ICICI BANK₹1,120.00▲8.90(0.80%)•
SBI₹820.00▼5.30(0.64%)•
BHARTI AIRTEL₹1,650.00▲22.80(1.40%)•
HUL₹2,380.00▼12.40(0.52%)•
ITC₹445.00▲3.20(0.72%)•
KOTAK BANK₹1,780.00▲14.60(0.83%)•
LT₹3,420.00▼45.20(1.30%)•
AXIS BANK₹1,080.00▲9.50(0.89%)•
BAJAJ FINANCE₹7,200.00▲85.40(1.20%)•
MARUTI₹12,400▼150.00(1.19%)•
ASIAN PAINTS₹2,850.00▲18.90(0.67%)•
HCLTECH₹1,420.00▼16.30(1.14%)•
TITAN₹3,250.00▲42.60(1.33%)•
ADANI PORTS₹1,380.00▼22.40(1.60%)•
POWER GRID₹310.00▲4.80(1.57%)•
NTPC₹365.00▲6.20(1.73%)•
SUNPHARMA₹1,680.00▼8.50(0.50%)•
NIFTY 50₹22,500▲125.30(0.56%)•
SENSEX₹74,200▲412.50(0.56%)•
BANK NIFTY₹48,300▼210.40(0.43%)•
TATA MOTORS₹780.00▲12.45(1.62%)•
INFOSYS₹1,520.00▼18.20(1.18%)•
WIPRO₹475.00▲5.60(1.19%)•
RELIANCE₹2,890.00▲34.50(1.21%)•
TCS₹3,650.00▼28.10(0.76%)•
HDFC BANK₹1,580.00▲15.20(0.97%)•
ICICI BANK₹1,120.00▲8.90(0.80%)•
SBI₹820.00▼5.30(0.64%)•
BHARTI AIRTEL₹1,650.00▲22.80(1.40%)•
HUL₹2,380.00▼12.40(0.52%)•
ITC₹445.00▲3.20(0.72%)•
KOTAK BANK₹1,780.00▲14.60(0.83%)•
LT₹3,420.00▼45.20(1.30%)•
AXIS BANK₹1,080.00▲9.50(0.89%)•
BAJAJ FINANCE₹7,200.00▲85.40(1.20%)•
MARUTI₹12,400▼150.00(1.19%)•
ASIAN PAINTS₹2,850.00▲18.90(0.67%)•
HCLTECH₹1,420.00▼16.30(1.14%)•
TITAN₹3,250.00▲42.60(1.33%)•
ADANI PORTS₹1,380.00▼22.40(1.60%)•
POWER GRID₹310.00▲4.80(1.57%)•
NTPC₹365.00▲6.20(1.73%)•
SUNPHARMA₹1,680.00▼8.50(0.50%)•
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Rolling Returns Study

The most accurate way to evaluate SIP performance — eliminating start/end date bias.

What Are Rolling Returns?

Rolling returns calculate the annualized return for every possible period of a given duration. For example, 5-year rolling returns of a fund started in 2005 would calculate the return for every possible 5-year period: Jan 2005 to Jan 2010, Feb 2005 to Feb 2010, Mar 2005 to Mar 2010... and so on for every month.

This eliminates the bias of cherry-picking good or bad start/end dates and gives a distribution of all possible outcomes. If 95% of all 10-year rolling SIP returns are positive, it means the probability of making money in any 10-year SIP is 95%.

Distribution of Rolling SIP Returns (Nifty 50)

Percentage of rolling periods falling in each return range

3 Years Rolling
85%
Positive returns
Avg: 12.5%
Min: -8%
5 Years Rolling
92%
Positive returns
Avg: 13.2%
Min: -2%
7 Years Rolling
97%
Positive returns
Avg: 14.1%
Min: 2%
10 Years Rolling
100%
Positive returns
Avg: 14.8%
Min: 7%

Key Conclusions

As the investment horizon increases, the probability of positive SIP returns approaches 100%
10-year rolling SIPs in Nifty 50 have NEVER delivered negative returns
The minimum 10-year rolling SIP return is around 7% — still beating FD returns
Most 10-year rolling SIP returns fall in the 10-15% range — excellent wealth creation territory
3-year SIPs have about 15% probability of negative returns — short-term equity SIP is risky
Rolling returns prove that time in market is the single most important factor for SIP success

Note: Rolling return data is illustrative and based on approximate historical Nifty 50 performance. Actual rolling returns vary by fund and market conditions. This analysis is for educational purposes.

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