Rolling Returns Study

The most accurate way to evaluate SIP performance — eliminating start/end date bias.

What Are Rolling Returns?

Rolling returns calculate the annualized return for every possible period of a given duration. For example, 5-year rolling returns of a fund started in 2005 would calculate the return for every possible 5-year period: Jan 2005 to Jan 2010, Feb 2005 to Feb 2010, Mar 2005 to Mar 2010... and so on for every month.

This eliminates the bias of cherry-picking good or bad start/end dates and gives a distribution of all possible outcomes. If 95% of all 10-year rolling SIP returns are positive, it means the probability of making money in any 10-year SIP is 95%.

Distribution of Rolling SIP Returns (Nifty 50)

Percentage of rolling periods falling in each return range

3 Years Rolling

85%

Positive returns

Avg: 12.5%

Min: -8%

5 Years Rolling

92%

Positive returns

Avg: 13.2%

Min: -2%

7 Years Rolling

97%

Positive returns

Avg: 14.1%

Min: 2%

10 Years Rolling

100%

Positive returns

Avg: 14.8%

Min: 7%

Key Conclusions

As the investment horizon increases, the probability of positive SIP returns approaches 100%

10-year rolling SIPs in Nifty 50 have NEVER delivered negative returns

The minimum 10-year rolling SIP return is around 7% — still beating FD returns

Most 10-year rolling SIP returns fall in the 10-15% range — excellent wealth creation territory

3-year SIPs have about 15% probability of negative returns — short-term equity SIP is risky

Rolling returns prove that time in market is the single most important factor for SIP success

Note: Rolling return data is illustrative and based on approximate historical Nifty 50 performance. Actual rolling returns vary by fund and market conditions. This analysis is for educational purposes.