The Week the Streak Got Its Size: What an 8.7% Fall Is, and What It Is Not

Last Saturday we published an article about the Nifty’s seven straight down weeks. Its argument was that a losing streak is a count, and that what your money experiences is a size. We pointed out that the seven weeks added up to 5.82%, and that no single week had lost as much as 2.1%.

Then the eighth week lost 3.11%.

When you write something and the next week tests it, the honest thing is to go back and check. So this article does that.

What happened, exactly

The Nifty 50 closed on Thursday 1 October at 22,421.95, down 718.55 points from the previous Friday. The Sensex closed at 71,909.70, down 1,986.04. Markets were shut on Friday for Gandhi Jayanti, so the whole fall happened in four sessions, and all four closed lower: Monday −360.25, Tuesday −64.05, Wednesday −95.75, Thursday −198.50.

The previous week had a shape you could point at: three reasonable days and one very bad Thursday. This week had no such shape. There was no recovery day at all.

The eight weeks now read −0.83%, −0.47%, −0.31%, −1.15%, −2.09%, −0.22%, −0.88%, −3.11%. From 24,570.65 on 7 August the Nifty has fallen 2,148.70 points, or 8.74%. More than a third of that came in the last four sessions.

According to a compilation published by Outlook Money, eight consecutive weekly falls is the Nifty’s longest such run since April 2001.

What we got right, and what changed

The sentence “no single week lost as much as 2.1%” is no longer true. We are not going to pretend it still is.

The argument underneath it holds up better. A count of weeks tells you nothing about depth, and you have to measure. Measured today, the answer is 8.74%. Last week it was 5.82%. The number moved, so the description should move with it: this is no longer a shallow decline. It is a moderate one.

It is still short of 10%, the level usually called a correction. And the run it is being compared with was a different animal: on the same compilation, the nine weeks that ended in April 2001 took about 27% off the index. Same kind of count, three times the size.

So the method was right and one of the facts has been overtaken. That is what should happen when you measure instead of predict.

Why this week was worse

Three things, none of them about Indian companies’ earnings.

First, the US–Iran talks in New York, which we described a week ago as progress but not resolution, broke down over the weekend. Oil went back above $100 a barrel on Monday. India imports most of its crude, so a higher oil price reaches inflation, the rupee and the government’s finances.

Second, American bond yields kept rising. The US 10-year Treasury touched about 5.34% on Thursday, reported as its highest level since 2002. When the world’s reference interest rate rises, money everywhere is repriced, and foreign investors in particular have less reason to hold emerging-market shares.

Third, and following from the second, foreign investors sold a net ₹34,966 crore of Indian shares in four sessions on provisional exchange data. That is roughly three times what they sold the week before.

The number that does not make headlines

In the same four sessions, domestic institutions — mutual funds, insurers, pension funds — bought a net ₹33,455 crore. Almost exactly what foreigners sold.

For September as a whole, the exchanges’ provisional figures show foreigners selling ₹44,013 crore and domestic institutions buying ₹76,030 crore.

A good part of that domestic money is ordinary people’s monthly SIPs. In August, the latest month AMFI has published, SIP contributions were a record ₹32,297 crore and the number of contributing SIP accounts crossed 10 crore for the first time. September’s figures are due shortly and will show whether that held.

This does not mean the market cannot fall further. Domestic buying slows a decline; it does not forbid one. What it does mean is that this is not a market that buyers have walked away from.

The economy and the market are telling different stories

On the same Thursday the Nifty fell 198 points, two pieces of data came out. Gross GST collections for September were ₹2,03,521 crore, up 14.7% on a year earlier. The final manufacturing PMI for September was 55.1, a seven-month high.

Thursday’s fall was led by auto shares after monthly sales figures. Maruti Suzuki reported sales up 24.4% on a year earlier and its share fell 4.86% on the day. Bajaj Auto’s domestic two-wheeler sales fell 12% and its share fell 7.62%.

A share price is a comparison between what happened and what was expected, with the week’s oil price and interest rates laid on top. It is quite possible for a company to have a good month and a bad day.

The index is everyone’s number. Your allocation, your goals and your dates are yours. After eight weeks, it is worth looking at your own.

What is worth checking now

Last week we suggested measuring the streak before reacting to it. That still stands. Three more specific checks make sense after a week like this one.

One: look at your own portfolio’s change over these eight weeks, not the Nifty’s. If you hold a large share in mid- and small-cap funds, your number is probably worse than 8.74%; the Midcap 100 fell about 3.5% and the Smallcap 100 3.18% this week alone. If you hold hybrid or debt funds alongside equity, it is probably better. Then look at the return over the whole period you have been invested. Both numbers are true. The second is the one your goals depend on.

Two: check the goals that are close. Money you need within two or three years should not be riding on what equities do next month, in a falling market or a rising one. If a near-term goal is still mostly in equity funds, that is a conversation to have with your Relationship Manager now, and it would have been worth having in July as well.

Three: leave the SIP alone. A SIP instalment in October buys units about 8.7% cheaper than the August one did. That is the only part of investing where a falling market works directly in your favour, and it works only if the instalment goes through. If your cash flow is genuinely stretched, pausing is better than cancelling.

What we do not know

We do not know whether there will be a ninth week. Nobody does. On Monday Indian markets will open having missed a weak US jobs report, a rebound on Wall Street and an OPEC+ meeting, and on Wednesday the Reserve Bank announces its rate decision, where reported polls lean towards a rise. Any of those could move the index either way.

What we can say is what has happened so far: an 8.74% decline over eight weeks, driven mostly by oil, American interest rates and foreign selling, met by steady domestic buying, while the economy’s own numbers stayed firm. That is a description, not a forecast.

If you would like to go through what these eight weeks have and have not changed for your own plan, speak to your Relationship Manager. It is a short conversation and usually a reassuring one.

Trustner Asset Services Pvt. Ltd. is an AMFI-registered Mutual Fund Distributor (ARN-286886) and earns commission on Regular plans; it is not a SEBI-registered investment adviser. This article is for general information and education and does not constitute investment advice. Mutual fund investments are subject to market risks; read all scheme-related documents carefully. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Market figures are from public exchange data and news agencies as of 1–2 October 2026 and may be revised.