Five Down Weeks and a Record SIP Month — Oil Back Above $100, the Gulf’s Bypass Pipeline Shut and a Fed Hike Priced In; Nifty −2.09% to 23,398, Sensex −2.27% to 74,782

The Nifty 50 fell 2.09% to 23,398.10, down 499.60 points from the previous Friday’s 23,897.70, and the Sensex lost 2.27% to 74,781.76 — a fifth consecutive down week and the steepest of the five, after a run that read −0.83%, −0.47%, −0.31% and −1.15%. Across the five weeks the Nifty is 4.77% below its 7 August close: a real decline, but a fall of under 5% spread over five weeks, not a crash. Three losing sessions gave way to a Thursday bounce and a Friday slip, and all five sessions reconcile to the point on both indices against the closes we published last Saturday. Two forces did the work. Oil returned above $100 — Brent near $104.47, MCX crude up 13.15% to Rs 9,759 — after drone strikes shut Saudi Arabia’s East–West pipeline, the Gulf’s main route around a largely closed Strait of Hormuz. And rising US rate expectations, with roughly 85% odds of a Fed hike on 15–16 September and the US 10-year near 4.98%, sent Nifty Realty down 6.5% and Nifty IT down 5.8%; only Pharma and Defence rose among the major sectors. Gold fell about 2% despite the conflict, the rupee weakened about 1.1% to Rs 95.55 while RBI reserves rose a record $44.9 billion in a week to $785.7 billion, and India VIX rose about 15% to a still-low 12.28. The week’s most telling figure came from households: AMFI reported August SIP contributions at a new high of Rs 32,297 crore, with more than 10 crore contributing SIP accounts for the first time, in a month when the market fell week after week.