Sixth Straight Weekly Loss: Oil Crosses $110, Rupee Recovers to 92.73, RBI MPC Next Week
BearishIndian equity markets extended their losing streak to a sixth consecutive week in a 4-day trading week (Good Friday holiday on April 3). Nifty 50 fell 2.5% to 22,713.10 and Sensex dropped 2.6% to 73,319.55. The week opened weak as Trump's renewed threat to strike Iran erased optimism, but April 1 saw a sharp FY27 opening rally — Nifty surged 2.7% to 22,941 — before selling resumed on April 2. Brent crude crossed $110/bbl as the Strait of Hormuz blockade tightened, with Iran's 'Tehran toll booth' allowing only 5-10 ships daily. India's Manufacturing PMI fell to a 4-year low of 53.9, adding domestic concerns to the geopolitical fears. In a positive surprise, the rupee strengthened from 94.46 to 92.73 on RBI intervention and improving trade sentiment. All eyes now on the RBI MPC meeting (April 6-8) where the central bank faces a growth-vs-inflation dilemma with crude above $110.
Key Points This Week
- 1Sixth consecutive weekly loss in a 4-day trading week: Nifty 50 fell 2.5% (593 points) to 22,713.10 and Sensex lost 2.6% (1,954 points) to 73,319.55. A strong April 1 FY27 opening rally (+2.7%) proved short-lived as selling resumed on April 2. Bank Nifty declined 1.4% to 51,549. India VIX held elevated at 25.52.
- 2FY26 ended painfully — Nifty slipped 5% and Sensex dropped over 7% for the full year. Midcaps and smallcaps saw steeper declines. Only 5 of 12 Nifty sectors ended FY26 in positive territory, with IT, Metal, and FMCG among the survivors.
- 3Brent crude breached $110/bbl, closing at $111.69 on April 2 — the highest since the crisis began. March saw the biggest monthly gain in crude history (+60%). The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively blockaded — Iran allowing 5-10 ships/day through a 'Tehran toll booth,' charging up to $2M per ship. IEA warned the supply crunch will worsen in April.
- 4Rupee staged a remarkable recovery from 94.46 to 92.73 — a 1.83% appreciation — driven by RBI intervention, improved trade sentiment, and easing FII outflow intensity. The currency pulled back from its all-time high of 94.86 hit in March. Gold MCX recovered 3.3% to ₹1,49,460/10g on safe-haven demand.
- 5Manufacturing PMI fell to 53.9 in March — a 4-year low, down sharply from February's 56.9. Middle East tensions, energy shocks, and rising input costs drove the moderation. Bright spot: new export orders rose at the strongest pace on record, and employment grew at its 7-month high.
- 6Weekly top gainers: ONGC (+19%), Power Grid (+7%), Tata Steel (+6.2%), Coal India (+5%), BEL (+4.6%). Top losers: HDFC Life (-7.6%), Shriram Finance (-6.7%), Dr. Reddy's (-6.4%), Bajaj Finance (-6.3%). Nifty IT (+2.6%) was the standout sector as rupee recovery boosted exporters.
SIP Investor Advice
Six straight weeks of losses — and yet this is exactly the environment where SIP investors build their biggest future wealth. The Nifty is down ~20% from its 52-week high. Every SIP installment at these levels buys more units than it did six months ago. April 1's 2.7% rally and then April 2's pullback is textbook volatility — your SIP doesn't care about daily moves, it compounds over decades. DIIs continue absorbing FII selling, powered by your monthly SIP contributions. The rupee's recovery from 94.46 to 92.73 shows markets self-correct. Manufacturing PMI at a 4-year low is concerning short-term but irrelevant to 15-year compounding. RBI's MPC decision next week may introduce more volatility — but volatility is the price of admission for long-term equity returns. Continue your SIPs without interruption. Speak to your Relationship Manager before making any panic decisions.
Market data shown is illustrative/sample only. Not real-time. All information is for educational purposes and should not be construed as investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future returns.