Ceasefire Rally: Nifty Surges 6% in Sharpest Weekly Gain in 5 Years as US-Iran Truce Crashes Oil
Cautiously OptimisticIndian equity markets staged their most powerful weekly recovery in five years, with the Nifty 50 surging ~6% to close at 24,050.60 and the Sensex rallying to 77,550.25 — decisively snapping the six-week losing streak. The catalyst was a Pakistan-brokered two-week ceasefire between the US and Iran on April 8, which included an agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude crashed ~14% from $111.69 to $96.48/bbl — the sharpest weekly oil decline since November 2022. India VIX plummeted ~20% to 19.2 as fear hedges were unwound. The RBI MPC held repo rate at 5.25% with a neutral stance, projecting FY27 GDP at 6.9% and CPI at 4.6%. AMFI released March data showing record SIP inflows of ₹32,087 crore (+7.5% MoM) and equity MF inflows surging 56% to ₹40,450 crore. Banking (+8%) and Auto (+7.5%) sectors led the charge. Market cap surged ₹29 lakh crore in one week.
Key Points This Week
- 1Nifty 50 surged ~6% to 24,050.60 and Sensex rallied to 77,550.25 — the sharpest weekly gain since February 2021, snapping a six-week losing streak. Market cap surged ₹29 lakh crore. India VIX collapsed ~20% from 25.52 to 19.2, confirming a dramatic unwinding of defensive hedges.
- 2US-Iran two-week ceasefire brokered by Pakistan on April 8, after 40 days of military strikes. Iran agreed to "complete, immediate and safe opening" of the Strait of Hormuz. Trump received a 10-point Iranian proposal, calling it a "workable basis to negotiate." However, the ceasefire is fragile — attacks were reported hours after the truce.
- 3Brent crude crashed ~14% from $111.69 to $96.48/bbl — the sharpest weekly decline since November 2022. Every $10/bbl drop saves India ~$15 billion in import costs. IEA forecasts Brent at $80/bbl by Q3 2026 if ceasefire holds. Energy stocks (ONGC, Coal India) gave back gains as oil dropped.
- 4RBI MPC held repo rate at 5.25% unanimously with a neutral stance. FY27 GDP projected at 6.9% (Q1: 6.8%, Q2: 6.7%, Q3: 7.0%, Q4: 7.2%). CPI at 4.6%. If oil sustains below $90, a 25 bps cut at June MPC becomes likely. Next MPC: June 3-5, 2026.
- 5AMFI March data: SIP inflows hit record ₹32,087 crore (+7.5% MoM from ₹29,845 Cr). Equity MF inflows surged 56% to ₹40,450 crore. Flexi Cap led at ₹10,055 Cr. ETF inflows surged 341% to ₹19,802 Cr. MF AUM dipped to ₹73.73 lakh crore (-10.1% MoM) due to market decline, but flows prove SIP discipline held.
- 6FIIs continued selling with April cumulative outflows of ₹37,933 crore, while DIIs absorbed ₹34,617 crore (~91%). Sectoral leaders: Nifty Bank (+8.2%), Auto (+7.5%), Financial Services (+6.8%). Top gainers: Shriram Finance (+14.2%), Adani Enterprises (+12.8%), Tata Motors (+11.5%). Top losers: Coal India (-4.4%), Sun Pharma (-3.7%).
SIP Investor Advice
This is the week that rewarded every SIP investor who held their nerve. Six weeks of relentless decline, record FII selling, oil above $110, and a VIX above 25 — and yet investors who continued their SIPs accumulated units at the lowest prices in months. Now, a single week has delivered a 6% surge, and those discounted units are already compounding. Record SIP inflows of ₹32,087 crore in March prove that millions of Indian investors understood this. The ceasefire is fragile and volatility may return — but that is precisely why SIP works. Your installment does not need to predict geopolitics; it needs time and discipline. Continue your SIPs without interruption. If you paused or stopped during the correction, restart immediately — the recovery has begun but the compounding journey is measured in decades, not weeks. Speak to your Relationship Manager for a portfolio review.
Market data shown is illustrative/sample only. Not real-time. All information is for educational purposes and should not be construed as investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future returns.